The
Best of a Brutally Good Year
Frank J. Avella's
Film Column
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January 19, 2008
Predictions Redux
Oscar column Addendum
Just two weeks ago, I boldly made
my Oscar nomination predictions in my column and
two weeks later, post-Guild nominations and glamless
Golden Globe announcement (and how lousy was that???),
I feel the need to reevaluate my selections. (Kudos
to Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily.com
for calling this one!)
To defend myself, I needed to
file a January column, but it is fascinating to
study the choices from two weeks ago and see how
the tide has turned AGAINST certain films/perfs…and
FOR others…
That tide is specific to the SAG,
DGA, WGA and tech guild choices. Three years ago,
the Hollywood Foreign Press would have had more
of an influence on the race-- and kept Atonement
and Sweeney Todd more alive—but the
AMPAS ballots were already mailed by the time the
winners were announced.
Daniel Day Lewis in There
Will Be Blood
The most surprising (and wonderful)
momentum gainer is There Will Be Blood.
Who’d have thought that a film this clever,
cerebral and ballsy would ever be in the best picture
running? There is definitely more love for The
Diving Bell and the Butterfly and Into
the Wild than most initially supposed and little
Guild support for Atonement and Sweeney
Todd. Sadly, Before the Devil Knows You’re
Dead seems, well, dead. The only thing that
hasn’t changed is the continued love for No
Country for Old Men and Michael Clayton.
These two diverse films will be getting a lot of
mentions on the morning of January 22nd.
One final note: In the acting races, it would seem
too easy to simply go with the SAG choices since
last year they matched nineteen out of twenty. It’s
my feeling that every category will miss by, at
least, one.
James McAvoy and Keira Knightley
in Atonement
Now let’s take a re-look
at the major races.
Best Picture
What I predicted two weeks ago:
American Gangster; Atonement;
Michael Clayton; No Country for Old
Men; Sweeney Todd
Looming possibilities: There Will Be Blood;
Juno; Into the Wild; The Diving
Bell and the Butterfly
I still think, as do the progs, the lineup will
come from these nine films. The locks are now:
Michael Clayton; No
Country for Old Men; There Will Be Blood
The last two slots are tricky
with Juno and Diving Bell seemingly
in the lead and Into the Wild just behind.
But I’m going to go with my gut here.
Final Predictions
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Tom Wilkinson and George
Clooney in Michael Clayton
Best Actor
What I predicted two weeks ago:
George Clooney in Michael Clayton; Daniel
Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood; Johnny
Depp in Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy in Atonement;
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises
Looming possibilities: Denzel Washington in American
Gangster; Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild;
Matthieu Almaric in The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly; Ryan Gosling in Lars and the Real
Girl
I still believe Depp has the support
to pull it off, can’t say the same for Mr.
McAvoy.
Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham
Carter in Sweeney Todd
Final Predictions
George Clooney in Michael
Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises
Amy Adams in Enchanted
Best Actress
What I predicted two weeks ago:
Amy Adams in Enchanted; Helena Bonham Carter
in Sweeney Todd; Julie Christie in Away
from Her; Marion Cotillard in La Vie En
Rose; Ellen Page in Juno
Looming possibilities: Keira Knightley in Atonement;
Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart; Cate
Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age;
Laura Linney in The Savages
So HBC might have happened if
Sweeney didn’t seem so…cooked.
I am still thinking Adams is going to pull it off.
Final Predictions
Amy Adams in Enchanted
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie in Away from Her
Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page in Juno
Best Director
What I predicted two weeks ago:
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood;
Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd; Joel &
Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men;
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton; Sidney
Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You’re
Dead
Looming possibilities: Ridley Scott for American
Gangster; Sean Penn for Into the Wild;
Joe Wright for Atonement; Julian Schnabel
for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
Basically, Schnabel is in, Burton’s out. And
Lumet, Gilroy and Penn fight for the last two slots.
I have to support Lumet here and…hope…
Final Predictions
Paul Thomas Anderson for There
Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen for No Country for Old
Men
Sidney Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You’re
Dead
Sean Penn for Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly
Casey Affleck and Brad Pitt
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert
Ford
Best Suporting
Actor
What I predicted two weeks ago:
Casey Affleck in The Assassination
of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford; Javier
Bardem in No Country for Old Men; Hal Holbrook
in Into the Wild; John Travolta in Hairspray;
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton
Looming possibilities: Tommy Lee Jones in No
Country for Old Men; Philip Seymour Hoffman
in Charlie Wilson’s War; Albert Finney
in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead;
Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood; Max Von
Sydow in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
As much as I still think there’s love for
Travolta, I’m going to go with the juggernaut
here and guess the Academy will want to recognize
new blood in Blood.
Javier Bardem in
No Country for Old Men
Final Predictions
Javier Bardem in No Country
for Old Men
Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse
James by the Coward Robert Ford
Paul Dano inThere Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton
Best Suporting Actress
What I predicted two weeks ago:
Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There;
Ruby Dee in American Gangster; Saoirse
Ronan in Atonement; Amy Ryan in Gone
Baby Gone; Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton
Looming possibilities: Catherine
Keener in Into the Wild; Vanessa Redgrave
in Atonement; Kelly McDonald in No
Country for Old Men; Michelle Pfeiffer in Hairspray;
Jennifer Garner in Juno
Going to stick with my initial predictions here.
Keener may seem to have the lead but I think Ronan
will bump her.
Final Predictions
Cate Blanchett in I’m
Not There
Ruby Dee in American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan in Atonement
Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton
January 1, 2008
This being
my “official” Oscar predictions/Best
of 2007 combo-column, I was planning on launching
into a litany of grievances specific to all the
legion of Oscar experts out there in blogland who
have appointed themselves soothsayers of all things
AMPAS yet chant the William Goldman-appropriated
mantra: “Nobody knows anything.” Those
three wise words help conveniently cover their respective
asses when they blunder big time, as most of them
did last year overlooking Clint Eastwood’s
masterpiece, Letters from Iwo Jima as a
viable Best Picture candidate and, instead, anointing
Dreamgirls based more on hype created by
a few of those chosen “experts” than
anything substantial. (I will be attacked for this
statement, as they will cite certain Guild awards,
etc…for their not recognizing Letters,
but the bottom line is, they were wrong. But since
“nobody knows anything” it’s,
of course, excusable! (BTW, I did predict Letters,
which simply means I guessed better).
Oh gee, I thought I wasn’t
going to bitch and moan about the arrogance displayed
by so many of the Award-predicting websites! Now
you may rightly wonder if it sour grapes due to
the fact that I am not one the select few prestige
film experts…a guru or sultan or sulu or whatever
they call themselves…hardly. Truth to be told
I have been living, sleeping and breathing all things
film and Oscar since the mid-seventies, when I was
just learning to write…and I have followed
each Academy Awards season with great excitement
(plus there’s that trusty grad degree I have
in Cinema Studies from NYU)…I simply never
thought about making money from it. Foolish me!
Each year gets more insane with
newer critics groups choosing awards. This year
it’s been downright comical watching the now
four billion critics groups select their winners
(enough already with the Iowa film critics…really!)
and having these bloggers report on their choices
as if they will really matter to the outcome. And
watching No Country for Old Men canonized as the
best film ever made on any planet in any galaxy
was just annoying but quite reminiscent of the critical
hosannas piled on Sideways in 2004 and
L.A. Confidential in 1997—two very
good, but hardly great films.
Then the Hollywood Foreign press chimed and confused
everyone. Last week SAG confounded things further,
since 19 of the 20 actors SAG nominated last year
matched Oscar and since SAG's choices this year
went against the expected grain. In the coming weeks,
more guilds will announce and the bloggers will
blog…but most will ride the “nobody
knows anything” wave to safety…giving
them free reign to say anything. Those of us who
love film, take it all so seriously. We can’t
help it. And so we enjoy arguing, predicting, attacking,
hailing, etc… But there are a few out there
who feel superior to others and imply they can actually
influence the outcome. Who are they? I don’t
want to name names but simply perusing the most
popular sites, you will get a good idea. (Over at
AwardsDaily.com,
Sasha Stone, at least tries to be as inclusive as
possible…Tom O’Nell at theenvelope.com
does his best as well, but many others give new
meaning to the word imperious!)
What I would respect...would rejoice
at, much more than hiding behind “Nobody knows
anything,” would be someone having the balls
to put themselves on the line and say, based on
my experience and taking into account blah-blah-blah
factors, here are my predictions…which I stand
by. How refreshing would that be--actually showing
a fearlessness and confidence in your calls, especially
if you run a blog that implies that you are an expert
of some sort!
That said, based on everything
I feel really factors into predicting the Oscars
as well as my gut instinct, here is how I see nominations
going down on the morning of January 22nd (realizing
that ballots are out and that so much can change
in the next two weeks…):
Tom Wilkinson and George
Clooney
Michael Clayton
Best Picture:
American Gangster
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
Looming possibilities: There
Will Be Blood; Juno; Into the
Wild; The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
If I had my way: Before the
Devil Knows You’re Dead
I’m not as comfortable with
Atonement as everyone else is (it may just
become the Dreamgirls of 2007) and I feel
that There Will Be Blood could be the one
to surprise here with Into the Wild a dark
horse.
Best Actor:
George Clooney in Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy in Atonement
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises
Looming possibilities: Denzel
Washington in American Gangster; Emile
Hirsch in Into the Wild; Matthieu Almaric
in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Ryan
Gosling in Lars and the Real Girl
If I had my way: Sam Riley in
Control
I’m pretty comfortable with
these, although McAvoy is probably not as safe as
assumed. Washington or Hirsch could snag his spot.
I do think Mortensen will finally be recognized
with a nomination. And, although Depp was not nominated
for a SAG, there is no way he will be overlooked
by AMPAS.
Amy Adams in Enchanted
Best Actress:
Amy Adams in Enchanted
Helena Bonham Carter in Sweeney Todd
Julie Christie in Away from Her
Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page in Juno
Looming possibilities: Keira Knightley
in Atonement; Angelina Jolie in A Mighty
Heart; Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The
Golden Age; Laura Linney in The Savages
If I had my way: Nicole Kidman
in Margot at the Wedding
Right up until typing this I had
Knightley in Bonham Carter’s place, but after
seeing Sweeney again, I have a feeling
if AMPAS goes for the bloodfest, they will in a
big way. Blanchett and Jolie were SAG nominated
so they could surprise as well.
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd
Joel & Ethan Coen for No Country for Old
Men
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton
Sidney Lumet for Before the Devil Knows You’re
Dead
Looming possibilities: Ridley
Scott for American Gangster; Sean Penn
for Into the Wild; Joe Wright for Atonement;
Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly.
If I had my way: David Cronenberg
for Eastern Promises
Best Suporting
Actor:
Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse
James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
John Travolta in Hairspray
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton
Looming possibilities: Tommy Lee
Jones in No Country for Old Men; Philip
Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War;
Albert Finney in Before the Devil Knows You’re
Dead; Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood;
Max Von Sydow in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
If I had my way: Ethan Hawke in
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Cate Blanchett in
I’m Not There
Best Suporting
Actress:
Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There
Ruby Dee in American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan in Atonement
Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton
Looming possibilities: Catherine
Keener in Into the Wild; Vanessa Redgrave
in Atonement; Kelly McDonald in No
Country for Old Men; Michelle Pfeiffer in Hairspray;
Jennifer Garner in Juno
If I had my way: Marisa Tomei
in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
And now on to the films that consider the Best of
a pretty terrific year at the movies:
No top ten list would be complete
without a list of runners-up that, in a less stellar
year, could have cracked the top then. They are
(alphabetically):
3:10 to Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bubble
Cassandra’s Dream
Charlie Wilson’s War
Control
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Golden Door
Gone Baby Gone
The Hoax
Juno
The Lives of Others
Margot at the Wedding
Michael Clayton
The Nines
Once
Javier Bardem in
No Country for Old Men
10. No Country for Old Men
– Arguably the most overrated film of
the year, but it’s so friggin’ good!
I labored about this tenth spot (with Michael
Clayton, Juno, Margot at the Wedding
and this film) but No Country excited me
and made me want to see it again. The Coens are
masters at exposing the dark side of humanity and
here they do it with a vengeance.
Emile Hirsch and Sean Penn
on the Set of Into the Wild
9. Into the Wild –
Sean Penn’s extraordinary and haunting film
that boasts a career-making performance from Emile
Hirsch. This road trip to hell is paved with a lot
of misguided notions…and a lot of snow…
Robert Downey Jr. and Jake
Gyllenhaal in Zodiac
8. Zodiac – One
of the most fascinating films to come along in a
while. Director David Fincher structures the story
as if the viewer is sifting through a visual file
cabinet filled with pieces to a puzzle. We are riveted
and cannot wait to figure out the outcome.
Casey Affleck and Brad Pitt
in
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert
Ford
7. The Assassination of Jesse
James By the Coward Robert Ford -- Andrew Dominik’s
revisionist western is bold, epic filmmaking that
features Brad Pitt’s best performance to date
and a star-making turn by Casey Affleck.
6. Eastern Promises –
Viggo Mortensen and David Cronenberg should keep
making films together forever! This nasty, provocative
look into a little publicized mob subculture was
one of 2007’s most delightful surprises.
5. American Gangster
– Ridley Scott’s best film since Alien,
this sprawling saga had me from the get go and never
let me go. Denzel Washington, as the paradoxic Frank
Lucas, has never been better and Russell Crowe continues
to prove that he is one of the best actors of his
generation.
James McAvoy and Keira Knightley
in Atonement
4. Atonement –
The worst thing I can say about this stunning meditation
on guilt and redemption is that it was too short!
James McAvoy and Keira Knightley are terrific and
Joe Wright directs with a seamlessness that usually
takes decades to perfect.
Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham
Carter in Sweeney Todd
3. Sweeney Todd –
The terrifying teaming of Tim Burton and Stephen
Sondheim could have spelled disaster. Instead, this
macabre musical blends the best of both artists
and they create one bloody brilliant piece of cinema.
Damn near close to a masterpiece (A.O. Scott in
the Times called that one), Johnny Depp gives his
best performance as the demonic and vengeful barber.
There is little hope for the nature of mankind offered
up in this gem, and, like that or not, it makes
for fantastic storytelling.
Daniel Day Lewis in There
Will Be Blood
2. There Will Be Blood
– And speaking of bleak…Paul Thomas
Anderson’s astonishing and groundbreaking
film is also spellbound by the worst in human nature—this
time when given the opportunity to amass a fortune
and achieve great power. Anderson also perfectly
shows the evils of hubristic religious zealots out
for their own piece of the American pie. Daniel
Day-Lewis is simply astounding in one of the best
performances of the decade. Evoking Kubrick, Altman
and, yes, Welles, Anderson must now be considered
a filmmaking force to be reckoned with. There will
be detractors. There will be awards. There will
be iconic status.
Ethan Hawke, Albert Fininey
and Marisa Tomei
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
1. Before the Devil Knows
You’re Dead – Rounding out the trilogy
of bleak and brilliant, Devil is the film
that shook me the most in 2007—not just for
it’s bone-chilling ending (There Will
Be Blood and Sweeney Todd, also had
amazing jaw-dropper endings), and not just because
it was so mesmerizing and moving, but because it
had something different to say about familial dynamics,
revenge and redemption. At age 83, Sidney Lumet
has made another classic--this time blending elements
of the crime caper with the dysfunctional family
drama. This film can rightly stand next to the best
of his best. Devil also features the best
ensemble acting of the year.
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