Frank
J. Avella’s
Film and Theater Column
2009 Oscar Hopefuls
Written by Frank J. Avella
Opposite Photo:
Daniel Day-Lewis and
Marion Cotillard
in Nine
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December 20, 2009:
THE BEST OF 2009
and of THE DECADE
I have decided to choose a top
13 for my favorite movies of 2009 as well as this
past decade (even though the decade doesn’t
technically end until NEXT year). It’s my
lucky number and who decided 10 was the definitive
quantity anyway!
My Favorite Films of 2009
Honorable Mentions to:
Broken Promises, Crazy Heart, District 9, Duplicity,
An Education, (500) Days of Summer, Flame and Citron,
The Girlfriend Experience, The Informant, It’s
Complicated, Julia, Julie and Julia, The Last Station,
The Messenger, Moon, The Most Dangerous Man in America:
Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Outrage,
Precious, A Prophet, Public Enemies, Star Trek,
Up, The Young Victoria.
And a loud shout out to:
Italy’s Vincere which
should have had a 2009 release and would have been
in my Top 5, but will instead be released in 2010…
My 13 favorite films of 2009:
13. Me and Orson Welles,
directed by Richard Linklater. A delight from beginning
to end, this gem has been rightly praised for Christian
McKay’s genius embodiment of the genius wunderkind
Welles, but the film itself has been unjustly overlooked.
It terrifically captures an important moment in
theatre history—and because of what Welles
was to achieve—cinema history. Enthralling
and perceptive yet old-fashioned, the movie avoids
the cliche' trappings of standard period flicks
and focuses on love and art and the passion both
demand.
James Gandolfini in In
The Loop
12. In The Loop, directed
by Armando Iannucci. This biting, abrasive and profanely
exhilarating film captures the true redundancy of
political satire and cunningly sends up the maneuverings
and machinations of two of the most powerful nations
on the planet. The Strangelovian plot is simultaneously
side-splittingly funny and jaw-droppingly cynical.
And the acting is sensational with a cast of seasoned
pros that complement one another. James Gandolfini
is particularly hilarious as an off-kilter US General.
But the film belongs to Peter Capaldi (so good in
Torchwood). As spin-doctor extraordinaire,
Malcolm Tucker, Capaldi gives a relentlessly furious
performance so enjoyable it should be criminal!
His nasty and searing line deliveries are some of
the funniest movie moments I have seen in eons.
Charlotte Gainsborough and
Willem Dafoe in Antichrist
11. Antichrist, directed
by Lars von Trier. A horror film born out of the
disturbed, genius mind of auteur provocateur von
Trier, Antichrist is one of the most disturbing
and deliberately enigmatic films of 2009. It took
me two viewings to get my bearings on this challenging,
enraging and mesmerizing movie. And even then, I
wasn’t sure what I really felt. I do know
that its grueling exploration of the dark side of
human nature has stayed with me all these months.
A Serious Man
10. A Serious Man, directed
by Joel & Ethan Coen. This bizarre and highly
personal film is one of the Coen brothers’
best works. As someone who has a love/respectfully
dislike relationship with their work this came as
a refreshing surprise. Michael Stuhlbarg leads a
relatively unknown cast in a movie that explores
ethical and moral dilemmas on small and grand scales
via a Jewish family growing up in the post-Cold
War 60s. In keeping their film seemingly narrow
in focus, it is disturbingly universal.
Colin Firth and Julianne
Moore in A Single Man
9. A Single Man, directed
by Tom Ford. Based on the novel by Christopher Isherwood,
this film is startling in it’s presentation
of a day in the life of a gay man in 1962 haunted
by the death of his significant other. Colin Firth
is given the role of his career and there is great
supporting work by Julianne Moore, Matthew Goode
and Nicholas Hoult, whose pretty features shouldn’t
take away from the fact that he’s a really
good actor. A newcomer to directing, Ford fearlessly
avoids the obvious and, instead, gives us a beautifully
sublime and richly satisfying meditation on the
devastating impact death can have on someone.
Morgan Freeman and Matt
Damon in Invictus
8. Invictus, directed
by Clint Eastwood. Age cannot slow this auteur down
and it continues to be a cause for rejoicing. Invictus
is pretty straightforward in its storytelling and
instead of an epic journey, Eastwood decided to
focus on the smaller details of this amazingly true
story. We become privy to Mandela’s loneliness
as we watch him at home eating alone. We imagine
the thoughts going through Pienaar’s head
as he stands in the jail cell that held Mandela
for 27 years. In zeroing in on the details, Eastwood
allows for empathy, something rare in a film. And
to the detractors, if a film about forgiveness feels
old hat, then we’ve all become way too jaded.
Penelope Cruz in Nine
7. Nine, directed by
Rob Marshall. And speaking of haters, so many US
crix have decided this film is the one to destroy
this year. And if you read many of the reviews,
the reason is more because Rob Marshall did not
direct the film they wanted made. Well so far SAG,
the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Broadcast Film
Critics have nominated it for major awards (including
Best Picture). Nine is a dazzling, mesmerizing
musical homage to Fellini and to all artists who
have trouble living in the real world because his/her
bubble world is where they truly feel alive. Daniel
Day-Lewis’ remarkable performance (another
intrepid immersion for him) anchors the work while
the sensational Marion Cotillard leads the supporting
cast of lovelies. Yes, the movie could have been
more psychologically complex (perhaps if the market
research-happy Harvey wasn’t the producer)
and yes, it should have been longer and included
more musical numbers (see Harvey again), but as
it stands it’s a fascinating tale of a megalomaniacal,
sex-obsessed man (can you say Tiger Woods?) who
is searching for inspiration…and it’s
a damn good one!
The White Ribbon
6. The White Ribbon,
directed by Michael Haneke. This incredibly riveting
and horrifying film warns viewers that what they
are about to see may go a long way in explaining
some of the atrocious behavior by the German people
in the decades that will follow. The perfect ensemble
and mosaic plot blend together to create a striking
tale of just how impressionable children can be
and how we should truly be careful what we ‘teach’
them—especially since, more often than not,
they learn by example. The film also has an important
warning about how dangerous extreme religious righteousness
can truly be.
5. Inglourious Basterds,
directed by Quentin Tarantino. He’s everyone’s
favorite appropriator and this time Quentin Tarantino’s
love of movies and the World War II era have blended
splendiferously and created a cheekily audacious
and wonderfully cathartic motion picture. Tarantino
has earned his right to allow his scenes to simmer
and stew until they’re ready to explode. He
doesn’t feel the necessity to fall back on
pyrotechnic camera movements and cuts. He lets his
actors take their time and deliver his crisp and
(sometimes anachronistically) smart dialogue as
it fits the scene. And the payoff in this masterblend
of hilarious insanity, demented violence and stirring
drama may be shocking and ridiculous but it is also
bracing and brilliant!
Viggo Mortensen in The
Road
4. The Road, directed
by John Hillcoat. Had The Road been released
in 2007 when mind-numbingly depressing and nihilistic
films were AMPAS-and-critic-popular (No Country
for Old Men, There Will Be Blood,
Atonement) perhaps it would have been heralded
as the bold and gutsy work that it is. Hillcoat
faithfully adapts the Cormac McCarthy novel and
digs deep into the dark areas of human nature depicting
just how far people are willing to go to survive.
Critics of the film have said that it’s too
damning of our race. Perhaps they should visit the
Holocaust museum and remind themselves just how
heinously humans can behave.
George Clooney in Up
in the Air
3. Up in the Air, directed
by Jason Reitman. Imagine a film that gets everything
right, from it’s clever and crackling script
to the pitch perfect performances to fantastic photography
and production design that gives you the sensation
of traveling to direction that never over-or-underwhelmes
but guides and allows. Up in the Air boasts
George Clooney’s most accomplished work to
date. Watching the cinematic sparks fly when he
is opposite Vera Farmiga is a delight. They are
the celluloid couple of the year—unless you
count Avatar's Jake and Neytiri! Explaining
the film’s plot, however, does not make this
film sound appealing. Simply go see it, unless you
want to miss out on experiencing sheer joy at the
movies.
The Hurt Locker
2. The Hurt Locker, directed
by Kathryn Bigelow. If war is a drug can tripping
on war lead to a soldier’s salvation or his
damnation? Bigelow knows how to create suspense
and the Iraq war is the backdrop for just how far
guys are willing to go to get their thrill fix.
The Hurt Locker is exhilarating filmmaking;
a visceral cinematic thrill, but it’s also
one of the most frightening and intelligent “war”
films of our time.
1. Avatar, directed by
James Cameron. So much has been written and so much
said already about this extraordinary achievement
that echoing all the superlatives and positives
(and I do) seems redundant. I will only say that
I cannot remember the last time I was transported--visually
and aurally as well as intellectually and spiritually—by
a motion picture that I craved seeing it again as
badly as I did. And it not only holds up a second
viewing but I want to see it again! Call him what
you will but James Cameron is fearless and that’s
a grand compliment in the entertainment industry.
He has managed to combine so many genres while making
important statements about current environmental,
social and political situations…oh, look,
there I go writing stuff that’s already been
written. Suffice to say that like 2001: A Space
Odyssey, Avatar is a film that will
influence other films and filmmakers for decades
to come—and not only for its groundbreaking
technical aspects but for the audacity of it’s
story.
A note:
I realize that in some of my musings it may appear
that I have some ax to grind with other film writers.
The truth is I feel so many have become so jaded,
taking themselves way too seriously and seeing themselves
as the friggin’ herald angels—but instead
of singing, they whine and complain and HATE. They
can’t wait to hate! Taking demonic glee in
tearing a film to shreds (especially when they are
the first to do so). I wish the ones who no longer
enjoy films would just stop writing.
At a recent screening of It’s
Complicated where half the audience was made
up of press and the others were from the NYC mayor’s
office (sitting in the back and left of the theatre),
you knew right away where the critics were. All
the laughter and cheers were coming from the back
and left. The ‘serious journalists’
appeared to be daring the film to be funny and the
few times they couldn’t help themselves and
released a laugh or two, they pulled back in immediately.
Now, I realize I seem to be indicting the entire
group and that isn’t fair, but trust me I
found the reactions (or deliberate lack thereof)
to be fascinating. Now I would not call It’s
Complicated a comic masterpiece but it very
funny. So let yourself go a little. Laugh. Stop
loving to hate. And stop taking yourself so seriously.
No one critical voice is that important. It’s
the films that matter.
Lead Actress:
Honorable Mentions to:
Robin Wright-Penn in The Private Lives of Pippa
Lee
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Zoe Saldana in Avatar
Abbie Cornish in Bright Star
Charlotte Gainsbourg in Antichrist
5. Emily Blunt in The Young
Victoria
4. Carey Mulligan in An Education
3. Helen Mirren in The Last Station
2. Tilda Swinton in Julia
1. Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia and
It’s Complicated
Lead Actor:
Honorable Mentions to:
Sam Worthington in Avatar
Tahar Rahim in A Prophet
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Tom Hardy in Bronson
Viggo Mortensen in The Road
5. Jeremy Renner in The Hurt
Locker
4. Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
3. Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine
2. Colin Firth in A Single Man
1. George Clooney in Up in the Air
Supporting Actress:
Honorable Mentions to:
Jessica Haines in Disgrace
Rosamund Pike in An Education
Melanie Laurent in Inglourious Basterds
Julianne Moore in A Single Man
Penelope Cruz in Nine
5. Vera Farmiga in Up in the
Air
4. Sigourney Weaver in Avatar
3. Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
2. Mo’Nique in Precious
1. Marion Cotillard in Nine and Public
Enemies
Supporting Actor:
Honorable Mentions to:
Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker
Brian Geraghty in The Hurt Locker
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones and Julie
and Julia
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
5. Matt Damon in Invictus
4. Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
3. Christian McKay in Me and Orson Welles
2. Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
1. Peter Capaldi in In the Loop
Director:
With Honorable Mentions to:
Rob Marshall for Nine
Tom Ford for A Single Man
Clint Eastwood for Invictus
Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon
Lars Von Trier for Antichrist
5. Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
4. Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
3. John Hillcoat for The Road
2. Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
1. James Cameron for Avatar
Original
Screenplay
5. Joel and Ethan Coen for A Serious Man
4. Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
3. Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon
2. James Cameron for Avatar
1. Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker
Adapted
Screenplay
5. Vincent Palmo. Jr. and Holly Gent Palmo for Me
and Orson Welles
4. Joe Penhall for The Road
3. Tom Ford & David Scearce for A Single
Man
2. Armando Iannucci, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell
and Tony Roche for In the Loop
1. Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in
the Air
BEST OF THE NOUGHTIES
Choosing the best of the decade
is ridiculously impossible ergo it’s grand
fun--especially for cinephiles. But let’s
clarify one thing. Technically the decade began
on January 1, 2001 (tell THAT to all the new millennium-doomsayers
out there who were crapping in their geekboots on
December 31, 1999!) so that means the real decade
isn’t over yet…but since sooo many others
are feeding into the erroneous new decade frenzy,
allow me to add my 2 cents. Actually, my 13 cents.
Since I did it with my fave films of 2009, I may
as well be consistent. Here with NO explanation
and no reason other than the fact that these were
the films that stayed with me the most and that
I cherish the most. I would argue that a handful
represent a significant step forward for cinema,
otherwise they’re just my best!
Honorable Mentions to:
Bad Education, The Curious
Case of Benjamin Button, Dancer in the Dark, The
Departed, A History of Violence, The Hours, Little
Children, Lost in Translation, Million Dollar Baby,
Mulholland Drive, Munich, The Royal Tennanbaums,
Y Tu Mama Tambien
My TOP 13 FILMS of
the DECADE are as follows:
13. Revolutionary Road,
directed by Sam Mendes
12. Milk, directed by Gus Van Sant
11. Avatar, directed by James Cameron
10. Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead,
directed by Sidney Lumet
9. Traffic, directed by Steven Soderbergh
8. Brokeback Mountain, directed by Ang
Lee
7. Best of Youth (La Meglio Goventu’),
directed by Marco Tullio Giordana
6. Gosford Park, directed by Robert Altman
5. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, directed
by Peter Jackson
4. Letters from Iwo Jima, directed by Clint
Eastwood
3. There Will Be Blood, directed by Paul
Thomas Anderson
2. Requiem for a Dream, directed by Darren
Aronofsky
1. Dogville, directed by Lars von Trier
ACTRESS
OF THE DECADE
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
Cate Blanchett
Marion Cotillard
Helen Mirren
ACTOR
OF THE DECADE
Daniel Day-Lewis
Sean Penn
Heath Ledger
Leonardo DiCaprio
George Clooney
DIRECTOR
OF THE DECADE
Lars von Trier
Clint Eastwood
David Fincher
Steven Soderbergh
Pedro Almodovar
SPECIAL
MENTION:
The Master: Robert Altman
December 13, 2009:
2009 is proving to
be quite an exciting year for the Academy Awards
with each major category bubbling with a slew of
potential nominees. What strikes me as most fascinating
is how, with each new day as awards season blooms
full, nothing is certain. No sure thing has yet
emerged. And even the surer things feel less than
absolute. Example, after seeing Avatar
and The Lovely Bones, one leaps to the
top of my Best Picture list, the other nosedives.
Avatar is quite simply one of most astonishing
and exhilarating cinematic experiences I have ever
had.
There has been much written, of late, about whether
the Oscars “matter” today. The fact
that so MUCH is, indeed, being written proves they
matter since what is truly vital is the dialoguing
about film and currently that dialogue is absolutely
deafening. More writers, in print and online, seem
to be focused on the Oscars than ever before.
More importantly, the movies themselves ‘matter’
and the Oscars have always been, and still are,
a celebration of cinema. The best celebration of
cinema.
There do seem to be too many opinions. Too many
bloggers wanting to be the first to herald the latest
“sure thing” or announce the film that
they feel is no longer a contender. The latter,
in particular, is disheartening and angering. In
the last few weeks, Nine and The Lovely
Bones have fallen victim to a rash of immediate
judgments against each and while I LOVE one and
have major issues with the other—neither should
be discounted since they both represent singular
visions by two exciting directors.
Attempting to analyze the race this early is much
like playing baseball blindfolded, you might enjoy
swinging the bat several times but you might also
get hit dab-smack in the face with the ball! No
matter, I’m ready to step up to the plate,
put on my blindfold and swing!
It’s easy to blur the lines between favorites
and predictions. Anyone who says they can be completely
objective is either a liar, delusional or on crack.
That said I plan on specifying when I am more taken
with a film or performance that doesn’t seem
to truly have traction.
Penelope Cruz in Nine
This year there’s
a special kind of lunacy since the Best Picture
race will feature ten films instead of five. I applaud
this oddly controversial decision. I had hoped for
years that AMPAS would return to the tradition of
nominating 10 (and even 12) films in the 30s and
early 40s, but I never really thought it would happen.
I even called for it last year—in the Best
Actor race!
I don’t feel upping the number to ten takes
anything away from the prestige or the exclusivity
of Oscar; I think it simply makes (rightful) room
to honor films that go overlooked each year. Last
year Revolutionary Road and The Dark
Knight may have made a Best Pic 10 list. The
bottom line is that the Academy is showing a refreshing
ability to grow and change and try out new ideas
(regardless of the reasons behind it) and that’s
always a good thing. Always.
Besides the handful of celebrated films that have
been predicted as shoo-ins across the blog-boards--and
remember Dreamgirls and The Dark Knight
were also on the shoo-in list--no one really knows
whether the Academy will decide to honor blockbusters
(Star Trek, District 9), comedies
(500 Days of Summer, A Serious Man),
serious fare (The Road, A Single Man),
foreign-language films (A Prophet, The
White Ribbon), Brit pics (An Education,
The Young Victoria), a docu (Capitalism:
A Love Story), an animated feature (Up)
or enjoyable popcorn flicks (Inglourious Basterds,
Julie and Julia).
I am pretty confident that the following six films
will make the final cut:
Avatar
James Cameron spent
fifteen years and only-the-movie-gods-know how much
money working on making certain his vision of Avatar
was realized the way he wanted it to be and the
result is one of the most extraordinary films I
have experienced in years. It’s an absolute
stunner that is both incredibly moving and technically
brilliant. AMPAS won’t be able to deny the
power (as well as the filmic importance) of this
wonder.
The Hurt Locker
One of the best-reviewed
films from early in the year is Kathryn Bigelow’s
The Hurt Locker with Jeremy Renner’s
powerful performance making him a solid Best Actor
contender (that was until Jeff Bridges’ eleven
o’clock entry into the race). More certain
is Bigelow’s nomination for telling an old
story in a new and exciting way.
I originally saw
Nine twice in rough-cut, and even then
it felt like a lock for Best Picture, Actor, Director,
Supporting Actress and techies galore. After seeing
the finished film I feel Nine is better
than Chicago in many ways and Rob Marshall
works some true cinematic magic. Daniel Day Lewis
is not only a believable Italian but also a good
singer. He delivers a multi-faceted, nuanced performance
(it’s DDL, so that can’t come as a surprise).
There may be a backlash against so many songs being
cut from the original show but I still feel the
Academy will embrace it.
It disheartened me to learn The Weinstein Company
is pushing Marion Cotillard for Best Lead Actress
for Nine, when her supporting performance
is the best female turn in the film and she would
most certainly be nominated in that category. I
am hoping the Academy rights that wrong come nominations.
Penelope Cruz is right behind her, continuing to
add to what is becoming a terrific body of work
onscreen. (If Nine doesn’t get her
a nod, Broken Embraces should). Of the
other women, no one is really onscreen long enough
to snag attention, but perennial fave Judi Dench
should never been discounted. And don’t completely
rule out Fergie simply for dazzling us with the
best musical number in the film: "Be Italian"
(okay that one’s beyond long shot, but what
the hell!!) Nine, by the way, boasts the
best cast since Altman was alive to gather the greats
together. And they’re ALL wonderful—even
Kate Hudson!
Forget the handful of online bloggers who seem to
have no concept of the “concept” film
musical and no respect for an amazing director and
two gifted screenwriters (Michael Tolkin and the
late great Anthony Minghella) who ingeniously found
a way to use the visual medium in their adaptation
while paying homage to the original Fellini masterpiece.
Mo’Nique in Precious
Precious
will make the Best Picture cut and Gabourey “Gabby”
Sidibe and Mo’Nique will probably both be
nominated despite the fact that Mo’Nique seems
to have pissed off the planet with her anti-Oscar
ramblings. Someone must have recently ‘spoken’
to her because she’s changing her tune. And
while she’s no George C. Scott or Marlon Brando,
she does delivers one of the most indelible performances
of the year and—unless she murders a small
child—will be recognized.
Morgan Freeman and Matt
Damon in Invictus
Clint Eastwood’s
talents, like a fine wine, get better with age and
while his new entry, Invictus, is not the
masterwork Letters from Iwo Jima is, it’s
a terrific, straightforward, no-frills movie that
is incredibly powerful and entertaining. Morgan
Freeman and Matt Damon are good bets for nominations
as is the film for Best Picture.
George Clooney in Up
in the Air
Finally, Up in the Air lives up to its
hype. It’s great filmmaking and George Clooney’s
performance is a career best. Look for multiple
nominations including one for Anna Kendrick who
near steals every scene she’s in. The trailers
and commercials do not to this film the justice
it deserves and I’ve noticed that when I try
to explain to people what the film is about, it
never sounds as compelling as it actually is. But
trust me, Up in the Air, is one of the
most insightful and exhilarating motion pictures
of the year!
So we have Avatar,
The Hurt Locker, Nine, Precious,
Invictus and Up in the Air. The
remaining four will come from the following:
Carey Mulligan in An
Education
Emily Blunt and Jim
Broadbent in
The Young Victoria
An Education
is a delight from Lone Scherfig and boasts this
year’s acting discovery: the ebullient Carey
Mulligan. Does the film have enough support to go
the distance? Or will some of that support go to
the underrated and thoroughly delightful costume
drama The Young Victoria? Directed by John
Mark Vallee, the pic has Oscar written all over
it and features a winning ensemble led by Emily
Blunt.
Saorise Ronan and Ray Singh
in The Lovely Bones
Peter Jackson’s
highly personal and deeply disappointing screen
adaptation of The Lovely Bones does boast
Stanley Tucci’s indelible portrait of sweet
Susie Salmon’s creepy murderer. I would also
give a loud shout to Susan Sarandon’s memorable
70s boozebabe, Grandma Lynn.
Two of my favorite American films of the year are
two of the most divisive (big surprise there!) Each
has support but both have a tough road ahead (oh,
forgive me!!).
Viggo Mortensen in The
Road
John Hillcoat’s
stunning cinematic adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s
devastating novel, The Road, should sweep
the nominations in a perfect world. Viggo Mortensen
gives his best performance and in a less crowded
year would be a cinch for Best Actor. And can someone
tell me why Kodi Smit-McPhee’s astonishing
turn as his son isn’t being talked about for
a Supporting nod? I am hoping against the odds that
The Road does not fall the way Before
the Devil Knows You’re Dead did two years
ago and Revolutionary Road did last year.
My only hope is that it does have big Harvey behind
it. And it’s one of the most extraordinary
film achievements of the year!
Colin Firth and Julianne
Moore in A Single Man
Tom Ford’s incredible directorial debut, A
Single Man, may fare better since Colin Firth’s
genius portrayal of a man crippled by loss is getting
loud buzz. But will it be enough to insure a Best
Pic nom?
And speaking of Weinstein (above), Quentin Tarantino’s
Inglourious Basterds is getting quite a push.
It’s certainly a crowd pleaser even if it
rewrites history, Tarantino-style!
Helen Mirren and James McAvoy
in The Last Station
Helen Mirren tears up the screen in The Last
Station, a film about the final days in the
life of Leo Tolstoy. She’s already a Best
Actress front-runner. In addition, Christopher Plummer
(who has insanely NEVER been Oscar nominated) could
grab a Supporting spot. Does it have the power to
climb onto the Best Pic pile?
Tahar Rahim in A Prophet
Germany’s
Oscar entry, The White Ribbon, and France’s
submission, A Prophet, are two of the finest
films of 2009. But the Foreign-Language category
will most likely be where those titles will be competing.
Vincere
And speaking of Foreign films, Vincere, Marco Bellocchio’s
masterwork about Mussolini’s first real wife,
should have had a 2009 release but since Italy fumbled
badly and chose to overlook this gem as their Foreign-Language
Film entry, the film will not qualify until 2010.
I only pray it’s remembered at next year’s
awards.
Best Picture
Most Likely:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Precious
Invictus
Nine
Probable:
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Possible:
The Messenger
A Serious Man
A Single Man
The Road
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
Julie and Julia
The Last Station
Up
Capitalism: A Love Story
500 Days of Summer
The White Ribbon
The Lovely Bones
Crazy Heart
Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin
in It's Complicated
My shake-things-up candidate:
It’s Complicated
The Directing category is more
intriguing this year because of the number of female
possibilities as well as the fact that the number
of Best Pic candidates have doubled. Kathryn Bigelow’s
helming of The Hurt Locker is the most
assured female nod with Lone Scherfig a long shot
for her work on An Education. Jason Reitman
(Up in the Air) has a smashing chance at
a nomination as does master Clint. Rob Marshall
will have a bit of a battle to sqeak in and Lee
Daniel’s direction of Precious is
one of the weakest aspects of that film, but he
could ride the wave if the film is as popular with
AMPAS as many believe it will be. As far as James
Cameron goes, it would be tragic if he was overlooked
since Avatar is one of the most amazing
follow-ups to an Oscar winning film (Titanic,
of course) ever.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Likely:
James Cameron for Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Probable:
Clint Eastwood for Invictus
Possible:
Rob Marshall for Nine
Lee Daniels for Precious
Lone Scherfig for An Education
Tom Ford for A Single Man
Joel & Ethan Coen for A Serious Man
John Hillcoat for The Road
Pedro Almodovar for Broken Embraces
Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon
Peter Jackson for The Lovely Bones
My shake-things-up candidate:
Lars Von Trier for Antichrist (And big
blue birds are going to fly out of my ass!)
Four Best Actress nominees now seem inevitable:
Carey Mulligan, Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep (when
is she going to win her long overdue third Oscar???).
Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe probably takes
spot number four—although I’m not that
convinced. I think Emily Blunt, Abbie Cornish (Bright
Star) or Marion Cotillard (if she’s sold
as lead) could take it from her. I believe Robin
Wright Penn (is she still Penn?) could receive a
surprise nomination for her sublime portrayal in
The Private Lives of Pippa Lee. She’s
never been nominated. It’s an excellent performance.
And she has divorce-sympathy on her side. The other
surprise here would be Sandra Bullock for The
Blind Side. I fought seeing it but finally
did and I have to grudgingly admit that if she made
the list, I would not be that upset.
What I want to know is how is it that hardly anyone
is discussing Tilda Swinton who gave an electrifying
performance in Erick Zonca’s highly underrated
Julia. No one is talking Swinton and it
puzzles me. I can’t remember the last time
an acting triumph of this caliber went completely
overlooked!
Best Actress
Meryl Streep in Julie
and Julia
Likely:
Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Carey Mulligan in An Education
Probable:
Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe in Precious
Possible:
Robin Wright in The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Marion Cotillard in Nine
Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria
Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones
Abbie Cornish in Bright Star
Melanie Laurent in Inglourious Basterds
Michelle Pfeiffer in Cheri
Audrey Tautou in Coco Before Chanel
My shake-things-up candidate: (You guessed it,)
Tilda Swinton in Julia
Like last year, the Best Actor possibilities are
absurd in their abundance.
And Fox Searchlight didn’t help by announcing
they are releasing Crazy Heart to qualify.
Good news for four-time nominee, never-winner Jeff
Bridges who is remarkable in it. Bad news for up-till-the-announcement-favorites
George Clooney and Colin Firth!
Matt Damon in The Informant
With Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Morgan Freeman, Jeremy
Renner, Daniel Day-Lewis, Viggo Mortensen and Matt
Damon (The Informant) all worthy of a nomination,
this is going to be another year where some of the
year’s best work is left off the short list
(can you say Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary
Road? Or Benicio Del Toro in Che!)
Best
Actor
Likely:
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Probable:
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Possible:
Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker
Viggo Mortensen in The Road
Matt Damon in The Informant
Michael Stuhlbarg in A Serious Man
Hal Holbrook in That Evening Sun
Tahar Rahim in A Prophet
Ben Foster in The Messenger
Sam Rockwell in Moon
Hugh Dancy in Adam
Michael Sheen in The Damned United
Sharlto Copley in District 9
James McAvoy in The Last Station
Clive Owen in The Boys are Back
Robert DeNiro in Everybody’s Fine
Johnny Depp in Public Enemies
My shake-things-up candidate:
Tom Hardy in Bronson.
In my Tribeca review of In The Loop, I
wrote, “Someone get this guy a gold statue”
about Peter Capaldi’s brash and relentless
performance. I only hope he isn’t lost in
the Supporting Actor shuffle.
No clear front-runner has emerged but bet on Christopher
Plummer to harpoon his very first nomination and
Christoph Waltz’s frightening “Jew Hunter”
to make the list.
One of great treats of the year was watching Christian
McKay’s virtuoso impersonation of Orson Welles
in Me and Orson Welles and I truly hope
he is rewarded with a nod.
For the record, this would have been the perfect
year for one of the best actors on the planet, eight
time nominee Peter O’Toole, to finally win
his longgggg overdue Oscar if only a distributor
had picked up Dean Spanley. This excellent film,
which features another outstanding performance by
O’Toole, played at last year’s Toronto
Film Fest and has been released in Britain. But
why not here??
Best Supporting Actor
Likely:
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Probable:
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
Matt Damon in Invictus
Possible:
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina in An Education
Christian McKay in Me and Orson Welles
Alec Baldwin in It’s Complicated
Peter Sarsgaard in An Education
Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker
Brian Geraghty in The Hurt Locker
Rupert Friend in The Young Victoria
Stanley Tucci in Julie and Julia
Peter Capaldi in In the Loop
Paul Schneider in Bright Star
Jim Broadbent in The Young Victoria
Tobey Maguire in Brothers
My shake-things-up candidate:
Christian McKay
Supporting Actress. Blah-blah, Mo’Nique. Blah-blah
shoo-in.
Two films might produce two nominations in this
category.
Up in the Air could not have two more different
yet splendiferous gals competing with the hilarious
Anna Kendrick and the compelling Vera Farmiga.
And Nine has a slew of potential candidates
beginning with the dazzling Marion Cotillard and
sexsational Penelope Cruz. And if Julianne Moore
had a little more screen time in A Single Man
she could have given the Mo-gal a run for the gold.
Best Supporting Actress
Likely:
Mo’Nique in Precious
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Penélope Cruz in Nine
Probable:
(if AMPAS proves savvy and place her in Support)
Marion Cotillard in Nine
Possible:
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
Julianne Moore in A Single Man
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Sigourney Weaver in Avatar
Judi Dench in Nine
Susan Sarandon in The Lovely Bones
Rosamund Pike in An Education
Charlize Theron in The Road
Patricia Clarkson in Whatever Works
Ellen Burstyn in The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond
Paula Patton in Precious
Cara Seymour in An Education
Samantha Morton in The Messenger
Natalie Portman in Brothers
My shake-things-up candidate: Jessica Haines in
Disgrace (it’s incredible that this
was her very first film and she sears the screen
in it!)
It’s too early to predict the best picture
winner. Before Toronto, The Hurt Locker
had the lead. Two months ago Precious (good
but NOT deserving of the top honors) and Up
in the Air seemed to be the pics to beat. Last
week Invictus was gaining ground. This
week, Avatar seems more than possible (and
deserving, I might add!) These next few weeks leading
up to the nominations—with critics awards,
and Guild choices --that will probably change too.
Probably.
Lead actor is a crapshoot—looking like Clooney
vs. Bridges vs. Firth, but let’s see who is
nominated first! Lead actress could finally be Streep
since she’s delivered two of the best performances
of the year in Julie and Julia and the
Nancy Meyers hilarious It’s Complicated.
But Carey Mulligan is a strong contender as well.
As far as Best Director, I have been saying all
along that a female helmer would finally take home
the gold. I really thought no matter what film won
Best Picture, Kathryn Bigelow would win Best Director.
That was until I saw Avatar. Looks like
the self-proclaimed “King of the World”
may very well reclaim his throne. We shall see…
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